Sinister: warning: napster debate (an econ perspective)

[paul.rudolph.b at xxx.com]

What many economists say will be the effects of rapid, easy access to
information brought on by increasingly more sophisticated communications
technology and information technology (what we will see in the next 50 to
100 years):

1)  We will pay a predetermined rate to access music and listen to it.  Sales of
      physical cds/tapes will be a thing of the past (as well as the cd player).

2)  Per item number one, we will have access to thousands and thousands of
     recordings.

3)  It will be easier for less popular musicians to be accessed by their "niche"
     markets due to item number two.  Indie fans take note.

4)  It will be easier for anyone to make an intricate recording and put it on
the web for
     access by others.

5)  The big money is not in listening rights (analogous to record sales today)
but in
      artists using their celebrity to market other products.

Record companies are hesitant to change because they have a proven business
model in existence.  Eventually, they will be forced to change due to the
increased
prevalence of music (due to Napster and others like it).  Remember, as something
becomes more prevalent, it becomes less valuable!  Obviously, it is easier and
easier to reproduce and transmit music (and knowledge, too) these days.

But, at the same time, these technology innovations have created and will create
many more opportunities for celebrity - many more opportunities to use what they
have that is of value - celebrity.  How this will relate to groups of a similar
popularity
to Belle & Sebastian, well, aside from items number two and three above, it
really
doesn't affect them.  Groups like this will only be able to capitalize on their
celebrity
to the extent of their celebrity.  Obviously, the groups that appeal to the
masses will
be able to exploit their celebrity to the highest degree.

Sorry to bore you all about this - send your medical bills to me.

Cheers,

Paul


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